A tentative gravitational wave signal sent astronomers searching for a possible electromagnetic counterpart. New radio observations weigh in on whether the candidate counterpart is a standard supernova or a sign of something rarer.

A Potential Neutron Star Merger

In 2025, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration announced an interesting gravitational wave candidate, S250818k. Despite a 71% chance that the gravitational wave signal wasn’t astrophysical in origin, S250818k raised eyebrows as a potential kilonova: a compact-object collision involving at least one neutron star.

S250818k offered a rare opportunity to associate the light from a kilonova with a gravitational wave detection, a feat achieved only once so far, in 2017. The intrigue surrounding S250818k was heightened even further by the possibility that the collision involved at least one sub-solar-mass neutron star. Such a lightweight neutron star would fall below the lower mass limit set by stellar evolution models, requiring a different formation pathway.

S250818k’s kilonova potential rose and fell once researchers spotted an electromagnetic transient in its source region. Early optical observations revealed a kilonova-like color and rapid fading, while later observations showed brightening similar to a supernova interacting with circumstellar gas. This led the event to be classified as supernova SN 2025ulz — and therefore unlikely to be the source of the gravitational wave signal.

A Kilonova in a Supernova?

Unlikely, but not impossible. Tanner O’Dwyer (Johns Hopkins University) and collaborators investigated the supernova for signs that it wasn’t a typical collapsing star. The team was motivated by theories suggesting that the collapse of a rapidly rotating massive star could produce both a kilonova and a supernova — potentially uniting gravitational wave signal S250818k and supernova SN 2025ulz.

In theory, the demise of a fast-spinning massive progenitor could produce one or more sub-solar-mass neutron stars. This could happen if 1) the collapsing stellar core splits into two neutron stars, or 2) in a twist on the star-formation process, neutron stars coalesce out of neutron-rich material in the disk surrounding the dying star. In either scenario, the neutron stars could merge shortly after the star’s collapse, generating kilonova emission that might be obscured by the expanding supernova.

Looking Deeply in the Radio

Radio observations offer a way to distinguish between a typical supernova, which would have relatively slow-moving ejecta, and a collapsing rapidly rotating progenitor, which could produce a relativistic jet. Searching for a radio counterpart to the supernova in observations from the Very Large Array, the upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope, and MeerKAT, O’Dwyer and coauthors found a faint but significant radio source in stacked observations made 51–96 days after the gravitational wave trigger.

The team found that standard supernova ejecta and relativistic jet models can both plausibly fit the data. In the supernova scenario, the estimated expansion speed and progenitor mass-loss rate place the event well within the bounds of known stripped-envelope supernovae. Though the data were also compatible with an off-axis relativistic jet, the authors were unable to resolve degeneracies in the event’s properties, including the jet energy and the interstellar medium density.

Ultimately, the authors suggested that a supernova fits the data more naturally. While this radio investigation didn’t unambiguously link S250818k and SN 2025ulz via an exotic kilonova-plus-supernova mechanism, it’s clear that radio observations have an important role to play in examining future gravitational wave signals.

Citation

“Identification of a Radio Counterpart to SN 2025ulz in the S250818k Localization Area,” Tanner O’Dwyer et al 2026 ApJL 1009 L44. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aea4a5

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Over many centuries of observing the night sky, astronomers have found only a single visible afterglow of a collision between neutron stars. For a few days in the summer of 2025, it seemed like observers may have found another of these treasured but elusive prizes; unfortunately, the promising candidate turned out to be a supernova in disguise.

A Rare Prize

When two neutron stars (the ultra-dense remnants of massive stellar explosions) spiral together and collide, the cataclysm is energetic enough to release strong gravitational waves, forge heavy elements, and briefly glow across the electromagnetic spectrum. These events are called kilonovae, and they’re quite rare; while we may have detected a handful at high energies, there is only one event for which astronomers managed to record both gravitational waves and an optical transient.

That one kilonova, found back in 2017, taught astronomers much about how heavy elements are formed and left the scientific community hungry for more data. Since then, each time a gravitational wave detector like LIGO reports that it may have spotted a neutron star merger, telescopes across the world scramble to look in the probable region of the sky, hoping to find the short-lived electromagnetic counterpart.

Too Good to Be True

On 18 August 2025, the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA collaboration sent out an alert that it may have detected a neutron star–neutron star merger. The odds that their signal was real weren’t great, and the researchers gave it just a 29% chance of being a genuine astrophysical signal. Still, given the potential payoff of finding the next kilonova, several telescopes quickly began searches for the optical counterpart. The gravitational wave signal suggested that the event likely came from a curved patch of sky delightfully referred to as the “northern banana,” and after trawling that region for a few nights, astronomers hauled in 47 new transients. Any one of these could have been the kilonova, and all of them received extensive follow-up observations.

A team led by James Gillanders (University of Oxford) recently summarized some of these follow-up observations carried out with the Pan-STARRS and ATLAS telescopes. In the initial exciting few days after the alert went out, one candidate transient stood out as the most promising. Named AT2025ulz, it was first spotted by the Zwicky Transient Facility and initially started fading rapidly and changing colors, just as models of kilonovae predict. For four days, it seemed like the world may have witnessed its second-ever kilonova. But then the telescopes began their fifth night of observations.

Supernova Unmasked

The light curve of AT2025ulz, after fading steadily in the preceding days, suddenly turned upwards; in other words, whatever was causing the transient got brighter. Models of kilonova evolution predict no such brightening, but Type IIb supernovae are known to follow just this behavior. AT2025ulz showed itself to be another run-of-the-mill stellar explosion, not the sought-after fireworks of two neutron stars slamming together.

Frustrating as this particular result may be, the effort was far from wasted. The team could use their non-detection of the true kilonova to place limits on its timing and peak magnitude, assuming it existed in the first place. And, as gravitational wave detectors grow more sensitive and alerts like this more common, hindsight will likely frame this scramble as a dress rehearsal for an ultimately successful kilonova recovery effort. Until then, astronomers will keep searching, and will keep their guard up against cosmic impostors.

Citation

“Pan-STARRS Follow-Up of the Gravitational-Wave Event S250818k and the Light Curve of SN2025ulz,” J. H. Gillanders et al 2025 ApJL 995 L27. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae2125

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The detection of gravitational waves and light from a single source was one of the most important discoveries of the gravitational wave era. Can upcoming data from Vera C. Rubin Observatory help astronomers repeat that feat?

Not Yet Repeated

When two neutron stars merge, the collision sends ripples through spacetime and generates an electromagnetic signal called a kilonova. In 2017, researchers detected gravitational waves and kilonova emission from colliding neutron stars — the first and, to date, only electromagnetic signal definitively associated with a gravitational wave event.

In a research article published this week, a team led by Simon Stevenson (Swinburne University of Technology; OzGrav) considered how the much-anticipated Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), carried out by Rubin Observatory, can enhance our ability to detect kilonovae and pair them with their gravitational wave counterparts.

Survey Simulations

When a new gravitational wave signal is detected, researchers rush to search for an electromagnetic counterpart to the signal. While Rubin Observatory can aid this type of reactive search, Stevenson’s team focused on a different strategy: spotting kilonovae during routine survey operations and using these detections to trigger a targeted hunt through gravitational wave data, searching for signals missed by automated detection algorithms.

Over the 10-year course of LSST, Rubin will scan the visible southern sky every few days, uncovering a wide variety of transient sources such as supernovae, novae, and tidal disruption events. Because Rubin will amass a huge amount of data each night, astronomers worldwide will use data brokers to pass along the most promising signals. Stevenson’s team used for their analysis a bespoke and modular data broker called Fink. Fink currently handles 200,000 alerts per night from the Zwicky Transient Facility and will be scaled up to handle 10 million alerts per night as Rubin requires.

Searching for Signals

Though Rubin is a transient-tracking powerhouse, it’s not ideally suited to discovering kilonovae specifically; these events evolve so rapidly that Rubin may only be able to collect a few data points before the event fades from its view. To gauge Rubin’s efficacy as a kilonova detector, Stevenson and collaborators simulated kilonova light curves and identified detections with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5; these detections will be passed to the data broker. They found that Rubin will detect about 42 kilonovae per year, but only a few will have a strong enough signal to be passed to the broker.

For the handful of detections that are passed to the broker, what are the prospects for tracking down the associated gravitational wave signals? Due to the survey cadence, most kilonova detections occurred 1–2 days after the gravitational waves from the neutron star collision would have reached Earth, but delays of up to 5 days were possible. This means that searches for gravitational wave signals must sift through multiple days of data — a computationally intensive prospect that might require the development of new search techniques. The computational requirements of this search are increased by the possibility of contaminants (signals misclassified as kilonovae and passed on by the data broker), which will require additional followup.

Despite these challenges, it’s clear that Rubin’s upcoming detections of kilonovae will advance our study of these rare events. With LSST expected to get underway early this year, the next multi-messenger signal may be just around the corner.

Citation

“Strategy for Identifying Vera C. Rubin Observatory Kilonova Candidates for Targeted Gravitational-Wave Searches,” Simon Stevenson et al 2026 ApJ 998 8. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae244e

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